Thu, Oct 30, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 211 | 09 | 18 | 01 | 0 | 329 |
| OTT | 113 | 010 | 28 | 07 | 2 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Joel Farabee, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:37OTTLars EllerSHAssists: Shane Pinto, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 15:53CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 2:36OTTArtem ZubAssists: Lars Eller, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 8:16CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 17:11OTTJake SandersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Drake Batherson scored
- 2. CGY Justin Kirkland stopped
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 4. CGY Morgan Frost stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:23OTTRidly Greig: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 9:33CGYKevin Bahl: Interference2 min
- P1 14:04OTTShane Pinto: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:22CGYAdam Klapka: Holding2 min
- P2 2:34OTTNick Jensen: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:50CGYMorgan Frost: Holding2 min
- P2 12:44CGYBlake Coleman: Interference2 min
- P2 12:44OTTNick Cousins: Embellishment2 min
- OT 2:30CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKirkland – Lomberg – Klapka6:31
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Honzek8:58
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Frost10:09
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Farabee – Sharangovich – Coronato9:59
xG 0.16–0.43 (26%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley14:46
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Bean – Pachal10:52
xG 0.48–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Andersson – Bahl14:30
xG 0.21–0.75 (22%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Batherson – Stützle6:34
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto8:44
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Perron – Cozens – Greig9:00
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub12:11
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Spence – Kleven9:54
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot13:02
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).