Thu, Oct 30, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 07 | 210 | 324 |
| WPG | 27 | 211 | 214 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:42WPGVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 8:57CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Connor Murphy · Slap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 16:56WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 1:54WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 11:19WPGGabriel VilardiGWGAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 10:12WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 13:02CHIAlex VlasicAssists: Connor Bedard, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 15:03CHIAndre BurakovskyAssists: Connor Bedard, Artyom Levshunov · Between legs, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 17:19WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:21CHIColton Dach: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:02WPGMorgan Barron: Interference2 min
- P2 3:24WPGNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:54WPGLogan Stanley: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:51CHIColton Dach: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:21CHIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nazar won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Greene – Bedard12:31
xG 0.66–0.25 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar10:43
xG 0.90–0.97 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Foligno – Slaggert – Dach2:36
xG 0.01–0.08 (9%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Donato – Dach3:42
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Levshunov5:47
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 2–1
- Kaiser – Rinzel3:03
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kaiser2:11
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Niederreiter – Namestnikov2:11
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:55
xG 1.02–0.79 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 4–1
- Pearson – Koepke – Ford4:34
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Pearson – Barron5:04
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:54
xG 1.01–0.72 (58%)attempts 17–17goals 3–1
- Schenn – Fleury7:14
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Fleury2:24
xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).