Fri, Oct 31, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 115 | 09 | 230 |
| ANA | 212 | 19 | 211 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53ANATroy TerrySHAssists: Drew Helleson, Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 8:19DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 12:24ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Troy Terry, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:35ANAMason McTavishGWGAssists: Olen Zellweger, Cutter Gauthier · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 15:25DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 0:55ANAChris KreiderPPAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 17:28ANATroy TerryENAssists: Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:10ANASam Colangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:31DETMichael Rasmussen: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:11ANAChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:13DETMoritz Seider: Holding2 min
- P2 10:50ANAChris Kreider: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:31DETAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:17ANAOlen Zellweger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:55ANABeckett Sennecke: Charging2 min
- P3 0:29DETSimon Edvinsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:58ANACutter Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:23DETJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:52ANAChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P3 14:33ANABeckett Sennecke: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAppleton – DeBrincat – Kasper5:57
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Soderblom8:45
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie6:23
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Copp – Compher – Berggren7:22
xG 0.08–0.51 (14%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson12:53
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka11:48
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Johansson9:05
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke10:33
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson7:30
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Vatrano – Poehling6:28
xG 0.03–0.17 (15%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Johnston – Nesterenko – Colangelo6:27
xG 0.08–0.40 (16%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Zellweger8:02
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Moore – Mintyukov2:02
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Trouba – LaCombe2:58
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).