Sat, Nov 1, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 111 | 18 | 230 |
| WPG | 28 | 212 | 114 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 2:43WPGBrad LambertAssists: Parker Ford, Cole Koepke · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 1:17WPGVladislav NamestnikovGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Alex Iafallo · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 12:13WPGKyle ConnorUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–4
- P2 19:48PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 10:27PITBlake LizotteAssists: Noel Acciari, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 18:39WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:39PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:43PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:49PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:30WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
- P2 12:13PITArturs Silovs: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P2 19:23WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00PITParker Wotherspoon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Hallander6:33
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hallander – Koivunen – Kindel3:07
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Novak – Koivunen – Kindel4:54
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Rust6:09
xG 0.85–0.55 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon15:15
xG 1.18–0.84 (58%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea4:07
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Pickering7:14
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Namestnikov – Iafallo11:37
xG 0.83–0.27 (76%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Pearson – Barron8:58
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:53
xG 0.92–1.03 (47%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Koepke – Lambert – Ford8:39
xG 0.41–1.00 (29%)attempts 5–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Pionk15:54
xG 1.28–0.61 (68%)attempts 25–12goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:47
xG 0.48–0.84 (36%)attempts 11–21goals 1–1
- Miller – Fleury13:40
xG 0.38–1.17 (25%)attempts 5–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).