Sat, Nov 1, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 115 | 116 | 07 | 01 | 239 |
| SJS | 16 | 15 | 09 | 13 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30COLMartin NecasAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:21SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Shakir Mukhamadullin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:07SJSPhilipp KurashevAssists: Ty Dellandrea, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 9:10COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin · Other, 1.00 xG2–2
- OT 1:48SJSPhilipp KurashevGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:55COLIlya Solovyov: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:09SJSJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min
- P2 4:50SJSMacklin Celebrini: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:07COLDevon Toews: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:13COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Olofsson – Drury9:11
xG 0.84–0.02 (98%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas14:46
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton9:38
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Kelly – Bardakov – Makar5:43
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Solovyov3:31
xG 1.24–0.02 (99%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar13:30
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Solovyov – Malinski4:09
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Toffoli – Smith – Celebrini14:02
xG 0.33–0.62 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Giles – Dellandrea7:12
xG 0.09–0.46 (17%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Kurashev – Eklund12:56
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Skinner – Graf – Misa6:32
xG 0.15–1.52 (9%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Mukhamadullin4:59
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Orlov – Liljegren4:31
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Mukhamadullin5:13
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).