Sat, Nov 1, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 27 | 15 | 00 | 317 |
| MTL | 29 | 07 | 19 | 12 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:25MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 11:53OTTDrake BathersonUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 19:49OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Shane Pinto, Artem Zub · Deflected, 0.83 xG2–2
- P3 12:27OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson, Tyler Kleven · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 17:37MTLIvan DemidovAssists: Lane Hutson, Mike Matheson · Slap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 1:40MTLAlex NewhookGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:51OTTKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:28MTLJoseph Veleno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:28MTLJoseph Veleno: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:28OTTTyler Kleven: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:55OTTRidly Greig: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:43MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min
- P2 15:57MTLAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:08OTTDrake Batherson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:34OTTTim Stützle: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 1:15MTLJayden Struble: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:15OTTNick Cousins: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kapanen won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Pinto9:49
xG 0.93–0.38 (71%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Cousins – Batherson – Stützle6:40
xG 0.01–0.24 (5%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig2:09
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Cozens – Greig10:21
xG 0.11–0.39 (23%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:13
xG 1.25–0.79 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo8:57
xG 0.08–0.54 (13%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot17:52
xG 0.15–0.90 (14%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestVeleno – Dach – Bolduc11:08
xG 0.99–0.36 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov10:39
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Dach – Bolduc2:01
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans7:09
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson12:51
xG 1.38–0.20 (87%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Matheson – Carrier3:22
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Carrier – Xhekaj12:11
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).