Sat, Nov 1, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 212 | 29 | 527 |
| PHI | 17 | 07 | 119 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Nikita Grebenkin, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:16TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly, Nick Robertson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 8:14TORJake McCabeAssists: Chris Tanev, Matias Maccelli · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 17:34TORNick RobertsonGWGAssists: Matthew Knies, John Tavares · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 0:33TOREaston CowanAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 16:08PHITyson FoersterPPAssists: Trevor Zegras, Matvei Michkov · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 19:42TORCalle JarnkrokENAssists: Dakota Joshua, Simon Benoit · Wrist, 0.59 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:02PHITravis Konecny: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:02PHITravis Konecny: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:09TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:53TORMax Domi: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:47TORCalle Jarnkrok: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:23PHIMatvei Michkov: Interference2 min
- P3 10:36TORJake McCabe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:51TORSimon Benoit: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:22TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMatthews – Robertson – Knies8:21
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Tavares – McMann – Cowan8:34
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Blais6:09
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – Maccelli7:44
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe8:01
xG 1.00–0.19 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 3–0
- Rielly – Carlo10:43
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit3:08
xG 0.23–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster8:10
xG 0.45–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Tippett – Zegras – Michkov7:33
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Abols – Gaucher7:36
xG 0.44–0.67 (40%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Grebenkin8:14
xG 0.21–0.56 (27%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Zamula10:34
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York14:17
xG 0.61–0.62 (50%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- Seeler – Drysdale11:49
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 9–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).