Sun, Nov 2, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, New York Islanders 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 03 | 114 | 15 | 222 |
| NYI | 118 | 010 | 211 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:53NYIMatthew SchaeferPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 15:21CBJMiles WoodAssists: Adam Fantilli, Boone Jenner · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 12:10CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 18:53NYIMatthew SchaeferUnassisted · Snap, 0.00 xG2–2
- P3 19:22NYISimon HolmstromGWGAssists: Anders Lee, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:43CBJDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:06NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:32NYITony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:20NYIAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:38NYIAlexander Romanov: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:17CBJDmitri Voronkov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestOlivier – Lundeström – Sillinger2:21
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Aston-Reese – Lundeström – Johnson6:48
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger12:11
xG 0.05–0.39 (11%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Jenner – Wood – Fantilli9:07
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Werenski – Fabbro5:12
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Werenski – Mateychuk12:40
xG 0.82–1.11 (43%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Fabbro – Christiansen10:15
xG 0.00–0.66 (0%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Holmstrom10:57
xG 1.09–0.23 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Horvat – Barzal – Heineman12:13
xG 1.53–0.80 (66%)attempts 24–10goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Drouin – Ritchie10:20
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Duclair – MacLean7:23
xG 0.15–0.20 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Romanov13:12
xG 0.89–0.25 (78%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock14:52
xG 1.13–0.59 (66%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer10:51
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).