Sun, Nov 2, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 17 | 14 | 221 |
| PHI | 03 | 06 | 19 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:15CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Brayden Pachal · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 7:06CGYJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Joel Hanley · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 14:20PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:20PHIBobby Brink: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:57CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:20PHIOwen Tippett: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato10:56
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Zary13:29
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Sharangovich – Klapka6:10
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Honzek12:21
xG 0.19–0.64 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl17:55
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanley17:30
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Pachal – Parekh7:27
xG 0.03–0.37 (9%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Cates – Grebenkin4:18
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Gaucher – Grebenkin5:18
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Couturier – Brink – Michkov3:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Abols – Michkov6:54
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York18:13
xG 0.87–0.17 (84%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Seeler – Drysdale16:37
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Juulsen – Zamula9:05
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).