Sun, Nov 2, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 114 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 332 |
| SJS | 05 | 04 | 27 | 02 | 0 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:05DETLucas RaymondAssists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 0:49SJSJeff SkinnerAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 10:16DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 16:55SJSSam DickinsonAssists: Will Smith, Patrick Giles · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 2. SJS Macklin Celebrini stopped
- 3. DET Alex DeBrincat stopped
- 4. SJS Will Smith stopped
- 5. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 6. SJS Philipp Kurashev stopped
- 7. DET James van Riemsdyk scored
- 8. SJS Tyler Toffoli stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:57SJSPhilipp Kurashev: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:12SJSWill Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P2 3:53DETTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:28DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:28DETMoritz Seider: Interference2 min
- P3 13:28SJSMacklin Celebrini: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Finnie13:56
xG 1.27–0.24 (84%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Appleton – DeBrincat – Kasper10:06
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Soderblom5:29
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Soderblom2:23
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Sandin-Pellikka12:06
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Seider – Edvinsson17:07
xG 0.49–0.31 (62%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Johansson14:09
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Skinner – Wennberg – Kurashev10:40
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Cardwell – Celebrini – Graf2:04
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Wennberg – Giles3:45
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dellandrea – Cardwell – Graf8:51
xG 0.01–0.41 (3%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Dickinson4:02
xG 0.15–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Mukhamadullin – Dickinson2:21
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Mukhamadullin3:54
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).