Tue, Nov 4, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 3, Anaheim Ducks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 210 | 02 | 321 |
| ANA | 29 | 210 | 313 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09ANACutter GauthierAssists: Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:14FLABrad MarchandAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 15:17ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Troy Terry · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 5:21FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 10:37FLAEetu LuostarinenPPAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P2 15:36ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 17:19ANANikita NesterenkoGWGAssists: Ryan Poehling, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 11:43ANAJacob TroubaAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 13:21ANAChris KreiderAssists: Nikita Nesterenko, Troy Terry · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–6
- P3 14:47ANAJansen HarkinsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–7
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:18ANAChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:02FLABrad Marchand: Broken stick2 min
- P1 12:23FLAEetu Luostarinen: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:06FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:08ANAAlex Killorn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:14FLAAnton Lundell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:58ANAIan Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:42FLAEetu Luostarinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:42FLAAnton Lundell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:42ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:51ANALeo Carlsson: Interference5 min
- P3 0:51ANALeo Carlsson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 4:16FLABrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:24ANAMason McTavish: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:42FLANiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Gregor – Schwindt6:03
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bennett – Boqvist – Samoskevich5:05
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues6:46
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Lundell8:30
xG 0.29–0.62 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Sebrango12:17
xG 1.04–0.76 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Jones – Mikkola10:59
xG 0.12–0.58 (18%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling11:20
xG 0.42–0.95 (30%)attempts 11–17goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke6:43
xG 0.81–0.26 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson7:29
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Killorn – Poehling – Nesterenko7:18
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Johnston – Vatrano – Harkins7:29
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Zellweger11:26
xG 1.09–0.29 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 3–1
- Moore – Zellweger2:05
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Helleson – LaCombe9:44
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).