Wed, Nov 5, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
St. Louis Blues 1, Washington Capitals 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 010 | 19 | 124 |
| WSH | 112 | 48 | 112 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:50WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: John Carlson, Jakob Chychrun · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 2:39WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 4:33WSHAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 9:28WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Ryan Leonard, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 16:20WSHAnthony BeauvillierUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG0–5
- P3 0:37STLAlexey ToropchenkoSHAssists: Pius Suter, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 9:00WSHTom WilsonAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.23 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:41STLColton Parayko: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:23WSHMatt Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:06WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:06STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:28WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:14STLPius Suter: Holding2 min
- P2 13:50WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:58STLJordan Kyrou: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Dvorsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Snuggerud9:02
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko2:07
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Holloway – Dvorsky3:05
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway2:33
xG 0.03–0.28 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fowler10:00
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Fowler – Mailloux5:09
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
- Faulk – Tucker8:58
xG 0.06–0.31 (16%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Lapierre – Leonard12:49
xG 1.18–0.37 (76%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Wilson – McMichael – Protas8:16
xG 0.80–0.35 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Sourdif10:34
xG 0.56–0.20 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier11:43
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun14:35
xG 1.02–0.33 (75%)attempts 23–11goals 3–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:19
xG 0.88–0.61 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin12:19
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).