Wed, Nov 5, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
San Jose Sharks 6, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 26 | 111 | 36 | 623 |
| SEA | 111 | 05 | 014 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Tyler Toffoli, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 16:30SEARyan WintertonAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Shane Wright · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 18:42SJSEthan CardwellGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:21SJSJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 1:02SJSWill SmithAssists: Mario Ferraro, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 3:24SJSTy DellandreaSHAssists: Collin Graf · Snap, 0.35 xG5–1
- P3 3:54SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Shakir Mukhamadullin · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:07SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:45SJSEthan Cardwell: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:18SEATye Kartye: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:03SEAJani Nyman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:30SJSJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:46SJSTyler Toffoli: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:08SJSMacklin Celebrini: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:58SJSTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:54SEARyan Lindgren: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Toffoli – Smith – Celebrini9:53
xG 0.29–0.29 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Graf3:12
xG 0.08–0.11 (44%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Dellandrea – Cardwell4:43
xG 0.01–0.06 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Gaudette – Kurashev8:07
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Ferraro3:34
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson3:24
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Dickinson4:23
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Kakko5:54
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Marchment – Winterton – Wright6:53
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Kartye – Nyman – Catton3:53
xG 0.03–0.08 (27%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Beniers – Catton4:19
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Lindgren13:52
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 18–8goals 1–3
- Larsson – Dunn13:24
xG 0.17–0.29 (38%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Mahura12:04
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).