Thu, Nov 6, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 210 | 19 | 326 |
| NSH | 110 | 010 | 04 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Filip Forsberg, Nick Blankenburg · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 4:43PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Cam York, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 17:37PHINoah CatesGWGAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 18:47PHITravis KonecnyENAssists: Christian Dvorak, Cam York · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:35NSHBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:11PHIOwen Tippett: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:05NSHSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:05PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:05NSHJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:05PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:16PHINoah Juulsen: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:36PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Couturier – Tippett – Zegras2:08
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Konecny – Cates – Grebenkin6:52
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Abols7:17
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Couturier – Brink – Michkov10:11
xG 0.41–0.95 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Andrae9:37
xG 0.62–0.27 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Drysdale2:17
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Juulsen – York2:11
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista10:37
xG 0.86–0.24 (78%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Haula – Marchessault7:20
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bunting – Svechkov – Wood5:54
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Svechkov2:31
xG 0.22–0.12 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Blankenburg15:51
xG 1.16–0.52 (69%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Skjei – Perbix15:02
xG 1.03–0.70 (59%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Stastney – Barron11:40
xG 0.27–0.59 (31%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).