Thu, Nov 6, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 7, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 411 | 37 | 725 |
| DAL | 28 | 15 | 213 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 16:18DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 1:16ANAChris KreiderPPAssists: Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 2:48ANAIan MooreAssists: Ryan Poehling, Nikita Nesterenko · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 8:19DALTyler SeguinAssists: Sam Steel, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 14:07ANACutter GauthierAssists: Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 17:05ANAOlen ZellwegerPPAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 0:16ANAChris KreiderAssists: Drew Helleson, Troy Terry · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 1:50DALMikko RantanenPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.23 xG5–4
- P3 9:22ANALeo CarlssonSHGWGAssists: Troy Terry · Slap, 0.18 xG6–4
- P3 16:39DALRoope HintzAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen · Deflected, 0.12 xG6–5
- P3 18:07ANAMason McTavishENAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Cutter Gauthier · Snap, 0.82 xG7–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:40ANANikita Nesterenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:00DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:08ANAIan Moore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:24DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:16DALAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:44ANAJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:53ANAMason McTavish: Elbowing2 min
- P3 4:32DALMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:05ANAIan Moore: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:04DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Poehling – Nesterenko6:45
xG 0.36–0.14 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson10:36
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Johnston – Vatrano – Harkins7:07
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- McTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke8:29
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Mintyukov8:13
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Trouba – Zellweger12:52
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Helleson – LaCombe14:42
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Faksa – Erne4:07
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Robertson – Johnston3:07
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bäck – Bourque – Hryckowian4:22
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Seguin – Hintz – Robertson6:47
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Petrovic – Harley2:07
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley10:25
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).