Fri, Nov 7, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 112 | 09 | 012 | 133 |
| SJS | 18 | 011 | 19 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:34WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 13:46SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 15:39SJSWill SmithGWGAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Philipp Kurashev · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:30SJSTimothy Liljegren: Holding2 min
- P1 6:15WPGNikita Chibrikov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:18SJSAlex Nedeljkovic: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:09WPGGabriel Vilardi: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:19WPGJonathan Toews: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Scheifele – Iafallo3:34
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi9:35
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Pearson – Koepke – Ford3:34
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Chibrikov6:30
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey11:25
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- DeMelo – Stanley2:06
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Stanley – Pionk9:20
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Smith – Celebrini10:24
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Gaudette4:55
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Wennberg – Kurashev – Graf12:03
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Skinner – Dellandrea – Cardwell8:20
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Ferraro13:40
xG 0.92–0.07 (93%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Orlov – Liljegren14:43
xG 1.18–0.45 (73%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Mukhamadullin10:05
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).