Sat, Nov 8, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 05 | 211 | 322 |
| CAR | 110 | 215 | 310 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:18BUFOwen PowerAssists: Noah Ostlund · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:34CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: K'Andre Miller, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 11:39CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Joel Nystrom, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 0:29CAREric RobinsonGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Charles Alexis Legault · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 3:23BUFAlex TuchAssists: Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 6:49BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Ryan McLeod, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 17:56CARSeth JarvisENAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.72 xG3–5
- P3 18:32CARCharles Alexis LegaultENAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.25 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:07BUFJacob Bryson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:59BUFConor Timmins: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:59CARMike Reilly: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:08CARCharles Alexis Legault: Interference2 min
- P2 18:08BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – McLeod12:53
xG 0.87–0.44 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Greenway – Doan – Kozak10:17
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Rosen4:22
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Dunne6:48
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power4:52
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bryson – Samuelsson10:10
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Timmins – Power11:34
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis12:36
xG 0.70–0.42 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier10:16
xG 0.54–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake8:23
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hall – Robinson – Kotkaniemi10:07
xG 0.39–0.57 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Legault16:00
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Nikishin – Nystrom14:17
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Walker – Miller14:10
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).