Sat, Nov 8, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 120 | 013 | 139 |
| SJS | 114 | 13 | 16 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:25SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, Vincent Desharnais · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:06SJSAdam GaudetteGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Timothy Liljegren · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 3:34FLABrad MarchandAssists: Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 19:09SJSAlexander WennbergENAssists: Collin Graf, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:03FLANoah Gregor: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:19SJSJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:17SJSPhilipp Kurashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:28SJSRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:18SJSAlexander Wennberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:39SJSMacklin Celebrini: Holding2 min
- P3 14:12FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Luostarinen – Lundell9:27
xG 0.45–0.02 (96%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues10:37
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Bennett – Boqvist – Samoskevich9:04
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Greer – Gregor – Schwindt7:09
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola15:52
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 25–12goals 1–1
- Ekblad – Forsling13:31
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Sebrango10:56
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Goodrow – Gaudette5:54
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Smith – Celebrini10:25
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Skinner – Dellandrea – Cardwell7:59
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Kurashev – Graf8:36
xG 0.00–0.41 (1%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Dickinson10:57
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Ferraro13:10
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Orlov – Liljegren11:34
xG 0.13–0.43 (24%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).