Sun, Nov 9, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Kings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 09 | 28 | 327 |
| PIT | 114 | 19 | 010 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48PITTommy NovakAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 14:58LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 7:48PITAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Kris Letang, Ville Koivunen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 4:49LAKCorey PerryAssists: Cody Ceci, Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 11:52LAKKevin FialaGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Alex Laferriere · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:34PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:54PITRyan Graves: Interference2 min
- P2 5:52LAKCody Ceci: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:54PITDanton Heinen: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:20LAKBrandt Clarke: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:40PITJoona Koppanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Byfield
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Byfield – Laferriere11:42
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Perry – Danault – Moore4:46
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Foegele2:22
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Danault – Foegele – Moore3:19
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke12:09
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ceci12:55
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson15:40
xG 0.47–1.28 (27%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Mantha – Novak8:20
xG 0.68–0.28 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Hayes – Koppanen – Koivunen7:34
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Heinen – Dewar – Lizotte7:18
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Kindel8:22
xG 0.21–0.76 (22%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Graves12:02
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea13:30
xG 0.80–0.64 (56%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
- Letang – Karlsson2:10
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).