Tue, Nov 11, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 2, Minnesota Wild 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 05 | 17 | 11 | 218 |
| MIN | 08 | 115 | 06 | 00 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:02MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Zeev Buium · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 11:57SJSWill SmithPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- OT 2:41SJSCollin GrafGWGAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Sam Dickinson · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:05SJSJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:43MINBrock Faber: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:05SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:47MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference2 min
- P2 11:49SJSJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:09SJSAlexander Wennberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:08MINDavid Jiricek: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Kurashev – Eklund12:33
xG 1.01–0.14 (88%)attempts 22–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Dellandrea – Graf5:41
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Skinner – Dellandrea3:48
xG 0.03–0.02 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf3:05
xG 0.02–0.23 (8%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Dickinson8:00
xG 0.56–0.12 (83%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Ferraro6:36
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin4:04
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:14
xG 0.68–0.04 (94%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Hinostroza – Hartman7:23
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Yurov8:44
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi11:38
xG 0.10–0.91 (10%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin14:43
xG 0.85–0.16 (84%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Hunt – Jiricek8:01
xG 0.11–0.21 (36%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Faber – Buium19:29
xG 0.16–0.95 (14%)attempts 9–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).