Tue, Nov 11, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 07 | 017 | 136 |
| COL | 112 | 111 | 213 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 18:16ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Jacob Trouba, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 11:37COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Sam Malinski · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 7:02COLMartin NecasPPAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:39COLParker KellyENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.81 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:23COLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:23ANAIan Moore: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:51COLJack Drury: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:51ANAOlen Zellweger: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:31ANAJackson LaCombe: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:47ANAIan Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 7:36ANAJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:21COLMartin Necas: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Carlsson9:26
xG 1.18–0.47 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- McTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke10:49
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Killorn – Poehling – Nesterenko7:58
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Johnston – Vatrano – Harkins6:55
xG 0.00–0.88 (0%)attempts 1–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHelleson – Zellweger2:07
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Trouba – Zellweger13:10
xG 0.57–0.69 (45%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Moore – Mintyukov10:59
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Bardakov – Brindley4:52
xG 1.02–0.01 (99%)attempts 16–1goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton7:25
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Colton – Drury – Brindley2:12
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Olofsson – Drury6:47
xG 0.05–0.23 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAhcan – Malinski8:22
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Manson – Malinski2:48
xG 0.38–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Burns – Toews2:27
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).