Tue, Nov 11, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 5, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 38 | 013 | 29 | 530 |
| VAN | 212 | 010 | 111 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57WPGJonathan ToewsAssists: Josh Morrissey, Cole Perfetti · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:21VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 11:58VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 14:38WPGJosh MorrisseyPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 14:53WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Adam Lowry, Alex Iafallo · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 0:48WPGGabriel VilardiPPGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 18:30VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 19:12WPGAlex IafalloENAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:22WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:52VANElias Pettersson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:01VANLukas Reichel: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:09VANQuinn Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:19WPGLogan Stanley: Interference2 min
- P2 19:09VANDrew O'Connor: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:50
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo9:06
xG 0.55–0.76 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Pearson – Chibrikov – Ford7:38
xG 0.03–0.29 (10%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Toews – Namestnikov – Perfetti10:19
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey9:31
xG 0.52–0.37 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley4:39
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk3:14
xG 0.10–0.16 (40%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Sherwood – Reichel8:34
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Boeser – Sherwood – Sasson2:56
xG 0.18–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Garland – Pettersson14:15
xG 0.66–0.62 (52%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – O'Connor – Räty7:32
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Willander10:46
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 20–19goals 0–1
- Hughes – Willander2:43
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Pettersson10:57
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).