Tue, Nov 11, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Seattle Kraken 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 111 | 011 | 01 | 2 | 234 |
| SEA | 19 | 08 | 05 | 01 | 1 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:43SEARyan WintertonAssists: Ben Meyers, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 18:22CBJAdam FantilliPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. SEA Mason Marchment stopped
- 2. CBJ Adam Fantilli stopped
- 3. SEA Jordan Eberle stopped
- 4. CBJ Kirill Marchenko scored
- 5. SEA Eeli Tolvanen scored
- 6. CBJ Sean Monahan stopped
- 7. SEA Kaapo Kakko stopped
- 8. CBJ Charlie Coyle scored
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:40CBJMiles Wood: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:07SEAAdam Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:46SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:40SEARyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:34CBJSean Monahan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:09SEABen Meyers: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Olivier – Sillinger8:23
xG 0.28–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jenner – Monahan – Chinakhov5:55
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli11:22
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Wood – Lundeström – Del Bel Belluz6:57
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mateychuk10:08
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Provorov – Fabbro2:25
xG 0.12–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fabbro – Mateychuk3:10
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKartye – Winterton – Meyers8:44
xG 0.95–0.08 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Tolvanen – Wright – Catton7:21
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Stephenson – Marchment11:38
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers12:23
xG 0.15–0.67 (19%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans13:27
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:35
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Montour – Lindgren14:18
xG 0.41–0.61 (40%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).