Thu, Nov 13, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 3, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 27 | 111 | 328 |
| DET | 010 | 316 | 37 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:57DETMoritz SeiderPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:35ANACutter GauthierAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 12:42DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Andrew Copp, Jonatan Berggren · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 14:54ANAChris KreiderAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Drew Helleson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 15:33DETAxel Sandin-PellikkaAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Jonatan Berggren · Snap, 0.00 xG2–3
- P3 0:50DETAlex DeBrincatPPGWGAssists: Moritz Seider, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 4:33ANAMikael GranlundAssists: Ian Moore, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 5:06DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 17:59DETAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:13ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:13DETMarco Kasper: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:40ANADrew Helleson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:03DETJonatan Berggren: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:25ANABeckett Sennecke: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:25DETSimon Edvinsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:29ANAMason McTavish: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:16DETAlex DeBrincat: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:23ANAMason McTavish: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:13ANAAlex Killorn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:13DETAlbert Johansson: Holding2 min
- P3 0:45ANAChris Kreider: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:21DETSimon Edvinsson: Holding2 min
- P3 19:44ANARoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:44DETSimon Edvinsson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Granlund – Strome3:20
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Strome – Johnston – Vatrano5:20
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Johnston – Vatrano – Nesterenko2:35
xG 0.04–0.01 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Granlund – Nesterenko5:06
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Mintyukov10:41
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Helleson – LaCombe10:22
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Trouba – Zellweger11:42
xG 0.68–0.78 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – DeBrincat – Raymond11:06
xG 0.93–0.37 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Appleton – Kasper – Danielson9:08
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Copp – Rasmussen – Berggren8:30
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Kane – Compher – Finnie7:41
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson15:30
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 1–2
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka9:52
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson3:21
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).