Thu, Nov 13, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 212 | 213 | 429 |
| CBJ | 16 | 315 | 14 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:36CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 0:44CBJCharlie CoyleAssists: Mathieu Olivier · Snap, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 8:09EDMMatt SavoieAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 9:49EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 10:19CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Sean Monahan, Luca Del Bel Belluz · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 18:20CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 7:30CBJMathieu OlivierGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.22 xG2–5
- P3 7:57EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 11:27EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:53EDMJack Roslovic: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:01CBJIsac Lundeström: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:30CBJMathieu Olivier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:11EDMAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:11CBJDmitri Voronkov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Savoie7:41
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 3–1
- Draisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin5:19
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Janmark – Lazar – Philp4:42
xG 0.10–0.03 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lazar – Philp – Tomasek3:21
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:22
xG 1.27–1.24 (50%)attempts 22–16goals 4–2
- Kulak – Regula12:49
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Nurse – Walman15:02
xG 0.22–0.91 (20%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Olivier – Sillinger10:45
xG 1.25–0.72 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 3–1
- Monahan – Johnson – Del Bel Belluz9:35
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli13:43
xG 0.73–0.45 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Wood – Lundeström – Chinakhov6:54
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov16:21
xG 1.56–0.90 (63%)attempts 17–20goals 3–1
- Severson – Mateychuk15:08
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 2–3
- Fabbro – Christiansen8:52
xG 0.18–0.10 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).