Fri, Nov 14, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Philadelphia Flyers 6, St. Louis Blues 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 211 | 26 | 06 | 1 | 631 |
| STL | 28 | 14 | 24 | 01 | 0 | 517 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19STLJordan KyrouUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:18PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Christian Dvorak, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 9:42STLJimmy SnuggerudAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 6:54STLJustin FaulkAssists: Cam Fowler, Oskar Sundqvist · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 7:17PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Owen Tippett, Emil Andrae · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 18:24PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Emil Andrae, Owen Tippett · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 0:40STLDylan HollowayAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 4:56STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud · Snap, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 7:53PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 10:29PHIOwen TippettAssists: Trevor Zegras, Noah Juulsen · Snap, 0.13 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. STL Robert Thomas stopped
- 2. PHI Trevor Zegras scored
- 3. STL Jimmy Snuggerud stopped
- 4. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
- 5. STL Dylan Holloway stopped
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:48PHIChristian Dvorak: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:48STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:51STLPavel Buchnevich: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Tippett – Zegras12:14
xG 0.83–0.44 (65%)attempts 18–7goals 5–1
- Cates – Brink – Foerster12:53
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov10:43
xG 0.31–0.39 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Abols7:11
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Andrae12:38
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 3–0
- Seeler – Drysdale15:12
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Sanheim – York17:39
xG 0.43–0.77 (36%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway9:39
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Joseph – Suter6:07
xG 0.19–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Snuggerud13:08
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Joseph – Suter – Dvorsky3:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg22:07
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Faulk – Kessel3:09
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Kessel8:35
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).