Fri, Nov 14, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
New York Islanders 3, Utah Mammoth 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 07 | 16 | 13 | 322 |
| UTA | 214 | 010 | 06 | 00 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Alexander Romanov · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 13:02UTAJJ PeterkaAssists: Lawson Crouse, John Marino · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 18:35UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 13:44NYIJonathan DrouinUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG2–2
- OT 2:06NYIMatthew SchaeferGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:56NYIAdam Boqvist: Holding2 min
- P1 6:14UTALogan Cooley: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:18UTAMichael Carcone: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:49NYIMatthew Schaefer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:56NYISimon Holmstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:19UTALogan Cooley: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:55NYITony DeAngelo: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:37NYICalum Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:47NYITony DeAngelo: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:40UTAJack McBain: Interference2 min
- P3 13:44NYITony DeAngelo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Barzal – Holmstrom11:28
xG 1.63–0.54 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Cizikas – Ritchie – Tsyplakov4:58
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair8:35
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Heineman9:38
xG 0.31–1.16 (21%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Schaefer8:25
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo7:22
xG 1.21–0.82 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Romanov – Schaefer3:24
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Cooley11:47
xG 1.10–0.94 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Carcone – Hayton – Guenther7:57
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Tanev – Yamamoto6:14
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Peterka9:31
xG 0.33–1.23 (21%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Simashev8:59
xG 0.96–0.22 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Marino2:16
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Cole – DeSimone9:00
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).