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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 15, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal

Boston Bruins 3, Montréal Canadiens 2

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.

MTL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS1102706323
MTL1711209228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:38BOSMarat KhusnutdinovAssists: David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:12MTLJake EvansSHAssists: Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:00BOSMason LohreiAssists: Mark Kastelic, Tanner Jeannot · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
  4. P2 16:51BOSViktor ArvidssonPPGWGAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.30 xG3–1
  5. P2 18:44MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jayden Struble · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (22)
  1. P1 0:04MTLJayden Struble: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:04BOSNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 1:05MTLCole Caufield: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 3:52MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 3:52BOSTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 5:51BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P1 8:09MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 8:09BOSFraser Minten: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 10:50MTLNoah Dobson: Slashing2 min
  10. P1 16:15BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
  11. P1 16:48BOSNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
  12. P2 7:38BOSFraser Minten: Holding2 min
  13. P2 7:49BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
  14. P2 9:58BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
  15. P2 16:13MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Hooking2 min · PPG
  16. P2 17:21BOSAndrew Peeke: Roughing2 min
  17. P2 17:21MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 0:44MTLKirby Dach: Hooking2 min
  19. P3 4:23BOSNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  20. P3 7:50MTLJayden Struble: High sticking2 min
  21. P3 8:20MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 8:20BOSMorgan Geekie: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
47% to win53% to win
← BOS attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Kapanen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSMTL
23Shots on goal28
4.2Expected goals3.8
63Shot attempts71
33Faceoffs won23
5Power plays7
30Penalty minutes26
27Hits27
16Blocked shots22
14Giveaways10
5Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestPastrnak – Geekie – Khusnutdinov7:52

    xG 0.73–0.26 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0

  2. Arvidsson – Zacha – Steeves4:56

    xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  3. Kuraly – Eyssimont – Viel4:25

    xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

  4. Jeannot – Kastelic – Minten6:31

    xG 0.08–0.53 (14%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestZadorov – Peeke3:42

    xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

  2. Zadorov – McAvoy2:58

    xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  3. Aspirot – Lohrei4:42

    xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestGallagher – Veleno – Davidson5:02

    xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0

  2. Anderson – Evans – Bolduc4:09

    xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1

  3. Dach – Kapanen – Demidov3:39

    xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0

  4. Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský7:44

    xG 0.24–0.60 (29%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestStruble – Hutson7:00

    xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0

  2. Matheson – Carrier3:14

    xG 0.36–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0

  3. Carrier – Xhekaj6:15

    xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.8 xGBOS 4.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #716 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.58 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.

MTL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).