Sat, Nov 15, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 213 | 115 | 16 | 434 |
| STL | 08 | 07 | 18 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:52VGKBrandon SaadAssists: Reilly Smith, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 14:58VGKBraeden BowmanPPGWGAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 0:36VGKNoah HanifinAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 11:20VGKTomas HertlAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 15:57STLPhilip BrobergAssists: Robert Thomas, Jimmy Snuggerud · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:25STLNick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:02STLNathan Walker: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:32VGKBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:35VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Bowman11:26
xG 1.16–0.50 (70%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev12:21
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Saad – Howden10:09
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt8:10
xG 0.01–0.19 (5%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:32
xG 1.00–0.35 (74%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Korczak7:24
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud13:25
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Toropchenko – Snuggerud5:05
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Walker – Dvorsky4:58
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Suter – Dvorsky4:51
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Buchnevich – Suter5:59
xG 0.25–0.47 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Fowler17:27
xG 0.69–0.77 (47%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Tucker – Kessel11:58
xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Parayko – Broberg14:32
xG 0.41–0.63 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).