Sun, Nov 16, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
New York Islanders 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 011 | 011 | 129 |
| COL | 07 | 210 | 211 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Kyle Palmieri · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:32COLRoss ColtonAssists: Cale Makar, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 5:51COLVictor OlofssonGWGAssists: Sam Malinski · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:25COLMartin NecasENUnassisted · Snap, 0.33 xG1–3
- P3 19:44COLBrock NelsonAssists: Brent Burns, Parker Kelly · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:56NYIScott Mayfield: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:14COLParker Kelly: Interference2 min
- P2 10:39NYIRyan Pulock: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:06COLCale Makar: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:40COLGavin Brindley: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:17NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:17NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:17COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:40COLMartin Necas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Drouin – Barzal2:07
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Ritchie – Shabanov4:58
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Pageau – Holmstrom – Shabanov2:45
xG 0.00–0.06 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair7:15
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Schaefer4:38
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer7:00
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock5:12
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:22
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Nelson – Colton – Brindley10:07
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Landeskog – Olofsson – Drury8:51
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Kelly – Bardakov – Makar3:10
xG 0.03–0.17 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Malinski11:55
xG 0.92–0.30 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar14:23
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Manson11:28
xG 0.34–0.62 (36%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).