Tue, Nov 18, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Seattle Kraken 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 111 | 16 | 05 | 222 |
| DET | 010 | 310 | 17 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:02SEAJordan EberlePPAssists: Matty Beniers, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 1:19DETLucas RaymondAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:04DETNate DanielsonAssists: Mason Appleton, Axel Sandin-Pellikka · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 7:26SEARyker EvansAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Shane Wright · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 10:56DETEmmitt FinniePPGWGAssists: Nate Danielson, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 19:30DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:50DETSimon Edvinsson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:37SEAJani Nyman: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 18:51SEABrandon Montour: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:19DETBen Chiarot: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Marchment – Beniers13:39
xG 0.75–0.21 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Tolvanen – Wright – Catton8:05
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Kartye – Nyman6:44
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Winterton7:51
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans11:39
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
- Montour – Dunn3:06
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Montour – Lindgren16:59
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – DeBrincat – Raymond13:28
xG 0.98–0.29 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Copp – Rasmussen8:12
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Appleton – Danielson – Finnie5:38
xG 0.17–0.12 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Kane – Compher – Kasper6:53
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Sandin-Pellikka16:54
xG 1.03–0.67 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Seider – Edvinsson19:36
xG 1.14–0.83 (58%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Johansson11:02
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).