Tue, Nov 18, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Utah Mammoth 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 07 | 07 | 211 | 01 | 226 |
| SJS | 27 | 09 | 04 | 12 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:58SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Collin Graf · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 9:25UTAJJ PeterkaAssists: Lawson Crouse, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 17:09UTAJJ PeterkaAssists: Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 2:52SJSMacklin CelebriniPPGWGAssists: William Eklund, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:34UTAIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 3:45SJSBarclay Goodrow: Interference2 min
- P2 12:24UTAClayton Keller: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:45UTAJJ Peterka: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:23SJSMacklin Celebrini: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:38UTAMichael Carcone: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- OT 1:48UTAJJ Peterka: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Dellandrea
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Cooley11:25
xG 0.72–0.42 (63%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Yamamoto – Hayton – Guenther11:05
xG 0.56–0.28 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Stenlund – Tanev – Carcone6:59
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Peterka7:27
xG 0.04–0.15 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino14:07
xG 1.02–0.43 (70%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Maatta – DeSimone7:35
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sergachev – DeSimone5:56
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk8:54
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Eklund – Graf10:36
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Gaudette – Dellandrea10:53
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Smith – Celebrini8:36
xG 0.15–0.51 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Desharnais – Dickinson10:14
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin15:19
xG 0.59–0.69 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Leddy – Orlov13:41
xG 0.32–0.59 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).