Wed, Nov 19, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 211 | 010 | 414 | 635 |
| BUF | 05 | 212 | 013 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:04CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Nazem Kadri, Yegor Sharangovich · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 10:21BUFMattias SamuelssonUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 15:57BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 2:02CGYMorgan FrostGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 7:34CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 9:50CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 17:49CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Morgan Frost · Slap, 0.23 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:39CGYMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:17BUFJosh Dunne: Interference2 min
- P2 4:39CGYJoel Hanley: Interference2 min
- P2 11:39CGYBlake Coleman: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kozak won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Farabee – Sharangovich12:57
xG 1.03–0.73 (59%)attempts 20–17goals 3–1
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato10:24
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary12:20
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Beecher – Klapka – Morton7:57
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Pachal13:25
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Andersson – Bahl17:06
xG 0.73–0.69 (51%)attempts 16–18goals 3–1
- Weegar – Kuznetsov15:46
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMalenstyn – McLeod – Krebs4:48
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Dunne – Ostlund5:33
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Quinn – Rosen – Ostlund2:38
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Greenway – Krebs – Kozak10:30
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 4–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin16:45
xG 0.99–0.70 (59%)attempts 19–24goals 2–1
- Dahlin – Power2:33
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Byram – Power2:49
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).