Sat, Nov 22, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 113 | 110 | 01 | 335 |
| DET | 011 | 19 | 211 | 12 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18CBJAdam FantilliPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 0:36DETLucas RaymondUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:54CBJMiles WoodAssists: Denton Mateychuk, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 8:38CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Ivan Provorov, Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 10:23DETBen ChiarotAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 13:25DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Emmitt Finnie, Nate Danielson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 1:50DETAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Ben Chiarot, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:13DETTravis Hamonic: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:35DETBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:35CBJKirill Marchenko: Holding2 min
- P1 18:15CBJDamon Severson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:15DETPatrick Kane: Embellishment2 min
- P2 0:54DETJonatan Berggren: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 8:09DETJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:09CBJBrendan Gaunce: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:23CBJCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestWood – Monahan – Johnson11:12
xG 1.03–0.49 (68%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger9:04
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Lundeström – Chinakhov6:32
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli12:20
xG 0.34–0.97 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mateychuk13:24
xG 1.21–0.68 (64%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Fabbro – Christiansen8:18
xG 0.50–0.21 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Werenski – Provorov17:37
xG 0.59–1.04 (36%)attempts 13–23goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Finnie12:44
xG 1.13–0.28 (80%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Appleton – Berggren – Danielson5:39
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Copp – Kasper7:50
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat12:48
xG 0.66–1.08 (38%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider13:11
xG 1.00–0.32 (76%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka2:44
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chiarot2:14
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).