Sat, Nov 22, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 46 | 04 | 16 | 516 |
| WSH | 19 | 111 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06WSHJustin SourdifAssists: Tom Wilson, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 2:53TBLBrandon HagelSHAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 5:21TBLOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 11:36TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser · Slap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P1 18:19TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Snap, 0.18 xG4–1
- P2 5:26WSHJakob ChychrunUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 5:24WSHEthen FrankAssists: Sonny Milano, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 15:51TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.17 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:39TBLJ.J. Moser: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:25WSHEthen Frank: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:06TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:12TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:25TBLCurtis Douglas: Instigator2 min
- P2 18:25TBLCurtis Douglas: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:25WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:25TBLCurtis Douglas: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 0:58WSHRasmus Sandin: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:30TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:17TBLEmil Lilleberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:25WSHJakob Chychrun: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Cirelli – Hagel4:00
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Douglas4:04
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel2:50
xG 0.15–0.30 (34%)attempts 2–4goals 1–1
- Guentzel – Point – James4:23
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser2:02
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cernak – Moser14:08
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg10:33
xG 0.12–0.53 (19%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Lapierre – Frank7:48
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Wilson – Protas – Sourdif6:22
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier6:57
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Duhaime – McMichael – Leonard4:34
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry5:53
xG 0.78–0.08 (90%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry4:07
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin6:55
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).