Sat, Nov 22, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 2, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 08 | 28 | 01 | 1 | 230 |
| CGY | 17 | 018 | 17 | 01 | 2 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P3 1:50CGYJoel FarabeePPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 6:44DALJason RobertsonAssists: Tyler Seguin, Kyle Capobianco · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 16:53DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CGY Morgan Frost scored
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 3. CGY Yegor Sharangovich stopped
- 4. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 5. CGY Matt Coronato stopped
- 6. DAL Wyatt Johnston stopped
- 7. CGY Nazem Kadri scored
- 8. DAL Roope Hintz stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:11CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:57DALLian Bichsel: Interference2 min
- P1 11:23DALColin Blackwell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:47DALMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:09DALMikko Rantanen: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 19:09CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Instigator2 min
- P2 19:09DALMikko Rantanen: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:09CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:09DALMikko Rantanen: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:09CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 3:52DALRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
- P3 17:34CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:12CGYJohn Beecher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Bäck – Bourque – Hryckowian7:03
xG 0.20–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Steel5:15
xG 0.25–0.28 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Seguin – Hintz – Robertson9:41
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Benn – Rantanen – Johnston6:27
xG 0.31–0.82 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Capobianco – Kolyachonok7:33
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen14:00
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Bichsel12:47
xG 0.50–1.04 (33%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Frost – Coronato7:53
xG 0.96–0.51 (65%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary9:57
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich9:33
xG 0.30–0.31 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Beecher – Klapka – Morton2:47
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl12:34
xG 1.17–0.26 (82%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Hanley – Pachal10:32
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Weegar – Kuznetsov13:34
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).