Mon, Nov 24, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 8, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 415 | 14 | 37 | 826 |
| NSH | 213 | 013 | 113 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:42FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Uvis Balinskis, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 6:52NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 10:32NSHFedor SvechkovAssists: Ozzy Wiesblatt, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 11:31FLAJesper BoqvistAssists: Gustav Forsling, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P1 15:46FLASam BennettGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 1:24FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Brad Marchand · Deflected, 0.08 xG5–2
- P3 2:11NSHNick BlankenburgPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Erik Haula · Deflected, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 4:52FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Uvis Balinskis · Snap, 0.10 xG6–3
- P3 8:33FLASam ReinhartAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.07 xG7–3
- P3 12:49FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: A.J. Greer · Backhand, 0.15 xG8–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:05NSHMichael McCarron: Interference2 min
- P1 8:08NSHSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P2 2:15FLANiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:06FLAJeff Petry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:51NSHLuke Evangelista: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:51FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:24FLAJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Rodrigues – Boqvist12:00
xG 0.90–0.18 (84%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Marchand – Lundell – Samoskevich10:46
xG 0.60–0.59 (51%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Greer12:03
xG 0.58–0.73 (44%)attempts 9–16goals 4–0
- Kunin – Gregor – Devine7:04
xG 0.01–0.43 (1%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling13:15
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Petry – Balinskis12:26
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Jones – Mikkola17:14
xG 0.53–0.93 (36%)attempts 13–23goals 2–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJost – Wiesblatt – Svechkov8:08
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista11:28
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Stamkos – Haula – Wood7:12
xG 0.13–0.39 (25%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
- Marchessault – McCarron – Bunting7:32
xG 0.29–0.60 (33%)attempts 9–7goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Hague16:18
xG 0.77–0.52 (60%)attempts 20–9goals 2–3
- Stastney – Blankenburg10:49
xG 0.50–0.43 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Skjei – Perbix14:54
xG 0.38–0.92 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).