Mon, Nov 24, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 010 | 17 | 128 |
| LAK | 010 | 05 | 27 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:31LAKWarren FoegeleAssists: Joel Armia, Joel Edmundson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 10:49OTTFabian ZetterlundAssists: Nikolas Matinpalo, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 13:50LAKBrandt ClarkePPGWGAssists: Joel Edmundson, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:22LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:45LAKBrandt Clarke: Holding2 min
- P2 3:08OTTLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:28OTTDylan Cozens: Interference2 min
- P2 16:28LAKMikey Anderson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:51OTTDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Pinto8:54
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Batherson – Stützle2:31
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Stützle7:18
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Cozens6:17
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Matinpalo10:08
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Kleven – Zub2:35
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub11:23
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Kopitar – Moore – Kuzmenko6:59
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Fiala – Kempe – Byfield12:02
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Armia – Danault – Laferriere8:26
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Moverare9:32
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Clarke14:34
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Anderson13:00
xG 0.47–1.05 (31%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).