Fri, Nov 28, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 23 | 112 | 05 | 01 | 2 | 421 |
| NYI | 06 | 313 | 09 | 03 | 1 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30PHITyson FoersterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 8:52PHISean CouturierUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 1:55PHITrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Emil Andrae, Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 5:42NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 8:11NYIMatthew SchaeferAssists: Anthony Duclair, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 19:13NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Maxim Shabanov, Matthew Schaefer · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Trevor Zegras scored
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 3. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
- 4. NYI Simon Holmstrom scored
- 5. PHI Travis Konecny scored
- 6. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:15PHITyson Foerster: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:10PHIRodrigo Abols: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:56NYIKyle MacLean: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:53NYIBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:25PHITravis Konecny: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:20PHIMatvei Michkov: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Brink – Michkov9:31
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Konecny – Cates – Foerster10:34
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 3–16goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Tippett – Zegras9:58
xG 0.09–0.64 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Abols – Grebenkin8:07
xG 0.03–0.64 (5%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Drysdale3:15
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Andrae – Drysdale14:12
xG 0.70–0.95 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Seeler – Juulsen9:23
xG 0.18–0.50 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Heineman – Shabanov6:48
xG 0.53–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Ritchie – Shabanov5:09
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Drouin – Barzal9:32
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Duclair – Holmstrom – Ritchie2:57
xG 0.23–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Schaefer10:49
xG 0.71–0.18 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer2:27
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo11:57
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).