Fri, Nov 28, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Ottawa Senators 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 29 | 114 | 328 |
| STL | 07 | 111 | 313 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:59STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Nathan Walker · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 10:11OTTShane PintoAssists: Nikolas Matinpalo, Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 18:26OTTFabian ZetterlundAssists: Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 2:01STLJordan KyrouAssists: Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 5:33STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Brayden Schenn, Philip Broberg · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 7:31OTTDavid PerronUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 9:19STLMatthew KesselGWGAssists: Dylan Holloway, Pius Suter · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:12STLCam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:12OTTTim Stützle: Embellishment2 min
- P1 6:36OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:31STLMathieu Joseph: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:31STLLogan Mailloux: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:31OTTDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:30OTTHayden Hodgson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:37OTTTim Stützle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Dvorsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Tkachuk – Cozens9:45
xG 0.92–0.48 (66%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Eller – Cousins – Hodgson4:45
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto7:16
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Perron – Eller – Hodgson2:06
xG 0.00–0.13 (2%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Matinpalo11:59
xG 1.18–0.79 (60%)attempts 20–14goals 2–2
- Jensen – Sanderson2:10
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven12:15
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Neighbours8:40
xG 0.37–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Suter – Holloway – Snuggerud8:29
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Joseph9:03
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Dvorsky8:18
xG 0.64–0.93 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Mailloux14:03
xG 0.93–0.30 (76%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Parayko – Broberg14:57
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Faulk – Kessel8:56
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).