Fri, Nov 28, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Montréal Canadiens 4, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 15 | 28 | 419 |
| VGK | 011 | 011 | 19 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:30MTLZachary BolducAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 2:04MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 3:36MTLJake EvansAssists: Alexandre Texier, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 15:16VGKMark StoneAssists: Mitch Marner, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 18:03MTLJuraj SlafkovskýENAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.81 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:45MTLMike Matheson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:41MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:41VGKKeegan Kolesar: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:12VGKBen Hutton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov9:06
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Bolduc11:19
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Veleno – Xhekaj9:13
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Texier11:19
xG 0.25–0.77 (25%)attempts 6–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson15:05
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Carrier – Xhekaj8:49
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson3:53
xG 0.14–0.19 (41%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Marner – Howden10:13
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Smith – Sissons – Kolesar9:20
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev9:27
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman13:46
xG 0.67–0.94 (42%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Theodore3:12
xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud12:59
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Theodore – Hanifin2:18
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).