Fri, Nov 28, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 15 | 012 | 222 |
| WSH | 010 | 113 | 311 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 2:49TORMatthew KniesAssists: Auston Matthews, Troy Stecher · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 13:18WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 13:16WSHAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 16:04WSHJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Ryan Leonard, Connor McMichael · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:58WSHTom WilsonENUnassisted · Slap, 0.28 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 0:41TORMorgan Rielly: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:31TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – McMann – Cowan10:22
xG 1.09–0.97 (53%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
- Joshua – Roy – Maccelli10:03
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Matthews – Robertson – Knies11:38
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz7:48
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMermis – Stecher10:48
xG 1.06–0.25 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- McCabe – Benoit18:00
xG 0.54–0.60 (48%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly17:42
xG 0.58–1.24 (32%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDuhaime – McMichael – Leonard7:27
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier13:38
xG 1.04–0.62 (63%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Wilson – Protas – Sourdif13:09
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- McMichael – Frank – Leonard2:52
xG 0.12–0.08 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry11:30
xG 0.92–0.45 (67%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Roy – Chychrun16:48
xG 0.78–0.73 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:50
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).