Fri, Nov 28, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 15 | 03 | 113 |
| CAR | 110 | 010 | 415 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:06CARSeth JarvisAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 10:41WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 11:52CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Mark Jankowski, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 12:39CARSeth JarvisAssists: K'Andre Miller, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 18:57CARSeth JarvisENAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Backhand, 0.71 xG1–4
- P3 19:37CARAlexander NikishinAssists: Justin Robidas, Eric Robinson · Slap, 0.01 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:36WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:08WPGColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:49CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min
- P2 12:53CARJackson Blake: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:33WPGThomas Milic: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 18:53WPGGabriel Vilardi: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53CARWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53CARJordan Martinook: Holding2 min
- P3 4:58WPGDylan DeMelo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Namestnikov – Perfetti2:54
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Pearson – Perfetti5:36
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Barron3:05
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:14
xG 0.37–1.01 (27%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Samberg7:42
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey6:20
xG 0.08–0.16 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Stanley13:05
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Martinook – Carrier8:01
xG 1.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:14
xG 0.81–0.41 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Hall – Robinson – Robidas10:11
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake8:06
xG 0.17–0.35 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikishin – Nystrom11:07
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Walker – Miller15:21
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield12:37
xG 0.73–0.44 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).