Sat, Nov 29, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 2, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 15 | 16 | 223 |
| COL | 214 | 310 | 212 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:32COLBrock NelsonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Joel Kiviranta · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 13:25COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Brock Nelson, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P2 0:50COLBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 3:55COLBrock NelsonAssists: Martin Necas, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 8:27MTLIvan DemidovAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Oliver Kapanen · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 19:05COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 2:51COLDevon ToewsAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–6
- P3 5:10MTLLane HutsonPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 6:52COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:50COLBrock Nelson: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:25MTLFlorian Xhekaj: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 18:04MTLOliver Kapanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:04COLMartin Necas: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:18COLDevon Toews: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:45MTLJake Evans: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:22MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:07MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov10:10
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Bolduc10:35
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Anderson – Evans – Texier9:27
xG 0.44–0.77 (37%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Veleno – Xhekaj8:38
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson2:49
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson2:24
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hutson – Engstrom12:44
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKiviranta – Bardakov – Ivan7:46
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Colton9:40
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas8:54
xG 0.72–0.55 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Kelly – Drury8:03
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:11
xG 0.97–0.50 (66%)attempts 20–12goals 2–0
- Girard – Malinski14:39
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Burns – Manson11:33
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).