Sat, Nov 29, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 29 | 19 | 29 | 527 |
| NSH | 05 | 19 | 19 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan Samberg · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 19:06WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Luke Schenn, Dylan Samberg · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 12:18WPGCole PerfettiGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 17:02NSHNick BlankenburgPPAssists: Luke Evangelista, Erik Haula · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 2:45NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Erik Haula, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 9:37WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Luke Schenn, Gabriel Vilardi · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 19:39WPGNino NiederreiterENAssists: Alex Iafallo, Dylan Samberg · Backhand, 0.81 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:31NSHFedor Svechkov: Holding2 min
- P1 10:40WPGColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:40NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:40WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:40NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:10WPGGabriel Vilardi: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:51WPGDylan Samberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:45NSHRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:32WPGLogan Stanley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:16NSHTyson Jost: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:44WPGCole Perfetti: Interference2 min
- P3 12:36NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Namestnikov – Perfetti9:04
xG 0.66–0.21 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo10:12
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi10:20
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Nyquist – Pearson – Barron6:36
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey13:36
xG 0.85–0.25 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 3–0
- Miller – Stanley11:08
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Samberg14:00
xG 0.60–0.95 (39%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJost – Svechkov – Schaefer6:06
xG 0.73–0.28 (72%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Forsberg – Evangelista2:29
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Haula – Forsberg – Wood4:57
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg2:17
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Hague15:25
xG 0.99–0.59 (62%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Josi – Blankenburg2:14
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stastney – Blankenburg9:58
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).