Mon, Dec 1, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 29 | 211 | 527 |
| PHI | 08 | 16 | 015 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bryan Rust, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 5:36PHITyson FoersterPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 8:08PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 15:52PITBryan RustPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 13:52PITTommy NovakPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 15:33PITKevin HayesAssists: Parker Wotherspoon · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:59PITBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:40PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:23PITConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P2 5:36PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:50PHIRodrigo Abols: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:20PHISean Couturier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:12PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:30PHIEmil Andrae: Interference2 min
- P3 3:12PITVille Koivunen: Interference2 min
- P3 12:03PHIMatvei Michkov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:50PITAnthony Mantha: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestImama – Dewar – Lizotte6:50
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Koivunen – McGroarty – Kindel10:06
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hayes – Rust11:09
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Novak9:02
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Graves15:08
xG 0.99–0.57 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Wotherspoon – Shea3:07
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea12:13
xG 0.39–0.33 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Tippett – Zegras10:11
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Konecny – Cates – Michkov2:10
xG 0.02–0.01 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Abols – Grebenkin8:31
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Konecny – Cates – Foerster5:20
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York12:42
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Seeler – Juulsen13:13
xG 0.55–0.59 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Andrae – Drysdale14:42
xG 0.31–0.81 (28%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).