Mon, Dec 1, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 010 | 26 | 426 |
| STL | 19 | 04 | 09 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33ANAMason McTavishAssists: Beckett Sennecke · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 6:53STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Jake Neighbours · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 10:24ANAPavel MintyukovGWGAssists: Ian Moore · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 5:58ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Radko Gudas, Pavel Mintyukov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 17:23ANAChris KreiderENAssists: Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:34STLOskar Sundqvist: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:14ANARoss Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:23ANAMason McTavish: Interference2 min
- P2 2:07ANATroy Terry: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:25STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:03STLDalibor Dvorsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:06ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:46ANAAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:38ANACutter Gauthier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke9:40
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Killorn – Vatrano – Poehling8:22
xG 0.30–0.20 (61%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson9:09
xG 0.25–0.82 (24%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Mintyukov8:38
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- LaCombe – Moore3:19
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Trouba – Zellweger8:04
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Neighbours7:54
xG 0.75–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Dvorsky4:52
xG 0.40–0.00 (99%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Joseph – Dvorsky2:02
xG 0.01–0.20 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Walker – Joseph3:30
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg14:28
xG 1.10–0.42 (73%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Faulk – Kessel10:10
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Fowler – Mailloux12:31
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).