Mon, Dec 1, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Utah Mammoth 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 212 | 017 | 15 | 334 |
| SJS | 313 | 315 | 02 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 7:58SJSPavol RegendaPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 9:06UTALawson CrouseAssists: Michael Carcone · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 12:59SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 16:00UTAJJ PeterkaAssists: Nate Schmidt, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 6:16SJSWill SmithGWGAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 7:25SJSAdam GaudetteAssists: William Eklund · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–5
- P2 9:09SJSWill SmithAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–6
- P3 6:30UTALawson CrouseSHAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:59UTAMikhail Sergachev: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:34SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:47UTADmitri Simashev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:33UTAJJ Peterka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:09UTAMichael Carcone: Interference2 min
- P3 13:23SJSCollin Graf: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Dellandrea
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestKeller – Hayton – Peterka13:10
xG 0.85–0.41 (68%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Yamamoto – Guenther – Cooley4:41
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Stenlund – Tanev – Yamamoto2:35
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Stenlund – Tanev2:45
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Simashev2:23
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Marino6:44
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 2–2
- Cole – Simashev10:21
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Smith – Celebrini10:30
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 4–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Regenda8:24
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Graf2:09
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Gaudette – Eklund11:01
xG 0.55–0.79 (41%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Ferraro12:37
xG 0.76–0.40 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Orlov – Mukhamadullin8:18
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren2:49
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).