Tue, Dec 2, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 211 | 010 | 210 | 431 |
| FLA | 011 | 19 | 06 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24TORTroy StecherAssists: Bobby McMann, Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 7:54TORDakota JoshuaGWGAssists: Bobby McMann, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 14:43FLASam ReinhartSHAssists: Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 12:18TORScott LaughtonAssists: Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 19:41TORJohn TavaresENAssists: Auston Matthews, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.80 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:04FLAJack Devine: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:21FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P3 5:40TORDakota Joshua: Interference2 min
- P3 16:52FLAEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Matthews – Knies12:29
xG 0.86–0.27 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Cowan11:46
xG 0.75–0.49 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – McMann10:09
xG 0.60–0.43 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Laughton – Lorentz – Robertson8:05
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Stecher19:24
xG 1.15–0.39 (75%)attempts 17–11goals 3–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly15:53
xG 1.08–0.48 (69%)attempts 24–16goals 0–0
- Myers – Benoit11:35
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Gregor – Boqvist3:49
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Studnicka6:00
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kunin – Studnicka – Devine2:36
xG 0.05–0.01 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kunin – Gregor – Devine3:16
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Balinskis11:24
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Jones – Mikkola16:43
xG 0.35–0.85 (29%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling19:13
xG 0.74–1.39 (35%)attempts 20–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).