Wed, Dec 3, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 14 | 114 | 011 | 229 |
| PHI | 311 | 212 | 012 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Josh Doan, Josh Norris · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 8:26PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Matvei Michkov, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:04PHITrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Travis Sanheim, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 9:25PHIBobby BrinkGWGAssists: Noah Cates, Nikita Grebenkin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 1:45PHINoah CatesAssists: Bobby Brink, Jamie Drysdale · Snap, 0.32 xG1–4
- P2 11:48BUFBowen ByramAssists: Alex Tuch, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 12:43PHIOwen TippettAssists: Matvei Michkov, Sean Couturier · Bat, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:20PHICam York: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 4:38PHIMatvei Michkov: Interference2 min
- P1 5:30BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:46BUFConor Timmins: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:26BUFJason Zucker: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 17:19PHIRodrigo Abols: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:40BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:24PHINicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:24PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:24BUFJosh Dunne: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:50BUFRasmus Dahlin: Boarding5 min
- P2 16:50BUFRasmus Dahlin: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:46PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min
- P3 6:21PHIMatvei Michkov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Doan – Ostlund6:02
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Norris – Benson7:42
xG 0.82–0.71 (53%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Dunne6:06
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn7:42
xG 0.41–1.08 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power4:29
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Bryson – Power5:58
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Samuelsson2:14
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Michkov8:23
xG 1.01–0.47 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Abols8:12
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras6:27
xG 0.26–0.51 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Grebenkin8:24
xG 0.44–0.97 (31%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndrae – Drysdale11:45
xG 1.67–0.38 (81%)attempts 18–9goals 3–0
- Sanheim – York5:54
xG 0.49–0.38 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Seeler – Sanheim3:24
xG 0.58–0.59 (50%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).